This research projects the population size, structure and disability rate of rural older adults based on the six waves of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey data from 2002 to 2018 and the Seventh National Census data. The result shows that the population size and the proportion of rural people aged 65 and above will increase from 90.35 million and 17.72% in 2020 to 124.38 million and 33.14% in 2035. The ADL disability rate of rural older adults will drop from 5.76% in 2020 to 4.92% in 2035, due to the decline of age-specific disability risk and the ageing population structure. Men's and women's disability rates will drop from 4.92% and 6.55% to 3.79% and 5.87%, respectively. The rural elderly population with disabilties is showing a trend towards severe disability and ageing. The decline in the total disability rate is mainly caused by the rapid decline in the mild disability rate, which was brought about by the reduction in the risk of age-specific disability. The moderate disability rate declined slightly and the severe disability rate continued to rise. The rate of moderate and severe disability are both around 4%. The study provides reliable data for the improvement of rural older care service capabilities and the promotion of long-term care insurance coverage to rural residents.

Based on the theoretical framework of the national transfer account and the age decomposition of national financial flows, this paper quantifies the dynamic changes in the economic lifecycle pattern of individuals and analyzes the conditions and challenges of realizing the second demographic dividend in China. The analysis shows that: the levels of income and consumption declined significantly after the age of 60, but the financial surplus was obtainable at a very low level in old age; the role of the secondary income allocation was limited in adjusting income inequality; the number of effective consumers that each effective laborer could support declines. While China has the capacity to reconstruct its demographic dividend, challenges remain. Strengthening institutionalized pension to enhance the financial surplus in old age is an important policy consideration to capture the second demographic dividend.

Since its founding, the CPC has lead a path of population development with Chinese characteristics in the past century, a period with revolution, construction, and reform, and formed the CPC's population thought. The CPC's population thought originated from the Marxist population thought. It sprouted during the new democratic revolution period, and gradually formed along with socialist revolution and construction. It was continuously improved in the new period of reform and opening up. It then keeps developing. The CPC's population thought systematically solves the big issue of how to achieve a comprehensive development for people in a country with a huge population like China. It is about the laws, functions, goals, concepts, methods, and guarantees of population development. This systematic and rigorous system is scientific, peoplecentered, practical, open, and national. This population thought is also the fundamental guarantee for the historic achievements of China's population development, and the scientific guide for promoting the greater achievements for China in the new era.

At present, the intergenerational support of the younger ageing parents in the onlychild families in urban China has the following Characteristics: On the intergenerational economic support, the proportion and quantity of money children giving to their parents exceeds what the elderly parents giving to them. The intergenerational economic support in the only child families is more balanced than in the multiple children families. On the intergenerational support in housework, there is more support in the only child families than in the multiple children families, but again the former is more balanced. In terms of spiritual support, the proportion of the ageing parents of only children feeling closer is higher than that in multiple children families. Between the only sons and the only daughters, there is no significant difference between the economic support and the spiritual support, but the support in housework is significantly different. The intergenerational support of the younger ageing parents in the only child families is mainly influenced by the status of their only child and the intergenerational relationship.

Using the panel data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study，this paper examines the impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) policy on the co-residence pattern of the elderly and their children.We find that the policy has significantly reduced the probability of co-residence and thus shocked the co-resident model in China’s rural area.Taking the elderly’s characteristics into consideration，the result suggests that the elderly would be more sensitive to the policy if they were in low-income status and not widowed.Furthermore，when matching the residence intention and living arrangement of the older people，it is found that the policy significantly increases the possibility of living alone，thus reducing the dependency on support from children.In order to promote the welfare improving effect of NRPS，we can increase the “Bottom Line” of the basic pension.

Using Arcgis10.0 and Moran’s I index method, this paper analyzes changing spatial patterns of population of Xinjiang’s major ethnic groups. The Moran's I index of Xinjiang's every main ethnic group is greater than 0, indicating different aggregation and dispersion of population distribution of Xinjiang’s main ethnic groups. With Tianshan Mountain as the boundary, there is obvious differentiation between the Han and the Uygur ethnic group in southern and northern Xinjiang. In northern Xinjiang, the concentration degree of the Han population is higher, while that of the Uygur ethnic group is higher in southern Xinjiang. No obvious changes were observed of the regional distribution pattern of the Han population and Uygur, Kazak and Mongolian ethnic groups, but considerable change occurred to the regional distribution pattern of the Hui ethnic group over 1982-2010. Policy implications of the above results are discussed at the end of the paper.

This study introduces a framework for estimating direct revenue provided to local coffers by so-called floating population, a synonym of migrants in the Chinese context. It proposes that the financial contribution made by floating population can be decomposed into three aspects of legally mandated payments: income tax or business tax, consumption-related tax, and obligation payment for local social security funds. Our analysis demonstrates that fiscal contribution based on floating population’s labor and consumption is not so much as their contribution caused by the loss of social security entitlements. We also find that the contribution made by floating population cannot cover the expenditure need that would arise if such population were granted an access to local public goods.

Using data from China’s population censuses and sampling surveys, this paper provides a reassessment of China’s fertility since 2005 under the assumption that the 2010 census has  similarly high data quality as the 1990 census. Cohort analysis suggests that population aged 0-5 in the 1990 census is underreported by 7.7%, and population aged 0-5 in the 2010 census is thus adjusted with this rate, which are further translated into annual births and fertility rate over 2005-2010. This paper also provides an estimation of fertility over 2005-2013 using the relationship between total fertility rate and crude birth rate which are based on data from censuses and sampling surveys plus the crude birth rates published by the National Bureau of Statistics. While differences exist in the results from the two type of estimation, they are largely consistent. China’s recent fertility stands at a level that is unlikely below 1.5, and most probably around 1.6. The paper concludes with a discussion of the assumption used in this research and some plausible limitations of the research.

The massive size of floating population is the vantage point for understanding China s post －reform developments brought by rural － to － urban migration and urbanization． Currently，the magnitude of floating population is available from several authoritative sources，including national censuses，administrative
registration records from the Ministry of Public Security and the National Population and Family Planning Commission，and large － scale samples surveys conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics． Nonetheless，the floating population is defined variously across data sources，creating inconsistency and incomparabilityproblems in terms of coverage and enumeration method and leading to different estimates of floating population size． This paper focuses on an in － depth understanding of the definitional complexities of floating population． We provide the documentation of specifics of statistical variables used by various bureaucracies to define floating population． We argue that the definitional complexities have originated from Chinese administrative settings in the administration of floating population． The complexities are also affected by different paces of socioeconomic reforms across regions．

Attempt has been made in this research to apply generalized linear models in graduating China′s life table mortality rates.Using demographic data of deaths by age and gender from China Population Statistical Yearbooks 1995-2006 and Statistical Yearbooks of China′s Population and Employment 2007-2010,the relationships between mortality and age and between mortality and year are explored by fitting death rates at ages from 0 to 89 using Poisson regression and negative binomial regression.Upon comparison of the fitting effects of the two models,the paper proposes to use B-spline function to smooth the death rates.Implications of this study are discussed for constructing China′s empirical life tables,providing theoretical foundation and practical reference for mortality analysis by China Insurance Regulatory Commission,and achieving market-oriented rates of life insurance and scientific management of the life insurance industry in China.

The marriage dilemma of involuntary bachelorhood is a prolonged phenomenon of rural China in the context of universal marriage.Using empirical materials that merged with nationwide survey data,press reports and in- depth interviews,this paper explores marriage dilemma of rural involuntary bachelors in marriage market from gender inequality perspective.The results show that marriage dilemma of rural involuntary bachelors both reinforces and is reinforced by forms and relations of their economic and social inequalities.Involuntary bachelorhood is due to the condition that these males cannot meet the anticipation of mate selection in the marriage market.We argue that involuntary bachelorhood is jeopardized not so much by the availability of brides as by gender inequality effects in the marriage market.